% prediction of every simple model

function [n,ypred]=spred(yd,t,ypred,n,dis,lambda,sn,my,n0)

sita=zeros(1,my);
ty=yd(dis,t-1);
delta=zeros(my,1); 
delta(yd(dis,t))=1;
sum=0;
for i=1:my
j=i+my*(dis-1);
n(j,ty)=lambda*(n(j,ty)+delta(i))+(1-lambda)*n0(j,ty);
sum=sum+n(j,ty); 
end
for i=1:my
j=i+my*(dis-1);
sita(1,i)=n(j,ty)/sum;
end

for j=1:dis
  ypred(j,dis)=sita(1,1)/dis;
end
  ypred(dis+1,dis)=sita(1,2);
for j=dis+2:sn
  ypred(j,dis)=sita(1,3)/(sn-dis-1);
end