function [n,sita]=pred(n0,y,u,t,my,n,lambda,sita)

ty=y(t-1)+my*(u(t)-1);
uni=ones(1,my);
delta=zeros(my,1); 
delta(y(t))=1;
for i=1:my
n(i,ty)=lambda*(n(i,ty)+delta(i))+(1-lambda)*n0(i,ty);
%sita(i,ty)=n(i,ty)/(uni*n(:,ty)); 
end
sita(:,ty)=n(:,ty)/(uni*n(:,ty));